AI, Tariffs, Rare Minerals: What to Expect From Trump’s Upcoming Summit With Xi Jinping

The US and China will announce a decision on extending or revising trade tariffs by November 10, impacting the cost of imported goods.

President Trump is scheduled to host Chinese President Xi Jinping at the White House on September 23 for a bilateral summit. The meeting follows an unusual diplomatic gesture by Trump, who will personally greet Xi at Joint Base Andrews. Ahead of the leaders' discussion, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer are meeting with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng to outline the agenda. Key topics are expected to include the ongoing trade conflict, supply chain vulnerabilities, technological competition, and the sensitive issue of Taiwan. A critical element is the November 10 expiration of the trade truce established at their Busan meeting last year, which could be extended. Discussions may also cover setting purchase targets for agricultural products, energy, and Boeing aircraft, as well as a potential $30 billion package for "non-sensitive" goods. Lifting China's export limits on rare earths and minerals, vital for AI and defense, was a cornerstone of the Busan agreement, and Beijing's leverage in these materials is significant. AI safety is also on the agenda, with China seeking eased restrictions on its technologies and some US businesses concerned about falling behind.

The upcoming Trump-Xi summit presents a critical juncture for the global AI supply chain, particularly concerning rare earth minerals. China's dominant position in processing these materials, essential for AI hardware, positions it as a key negotiator in trade talks. The US seeks to secure a more stable supply, while Beijing aims to leverage this demand to ease restrictions on its own technologies, creating a complex interdependence that could reshape international tech trade.

The summit's focus on AI safety and chip export controls highlights the deepening strategic competition between the US and China. While some US businesses desire a slowdown in AI development to ensure safety, others worry about China gaining a competitive edge. This tension underscores the challenge of balancing national security concerns with the pursuit of technological advancement and economic growth in a rapidly evolving global landscape.