Analysis: only ~2.3 GW of planned data center capacity is delayed by direct project-level policies like local moratoriums and New York's data center EO

Local data center moratoriums and state policies are causing about 2.3 GW of delays, not the much larger numbers often cited.

Contrary to widespread belief, datacenter moratoriums are not significantly hindering the US buildout. While over 300 local restrictions and several state-level policies exist, only approximately 2.3 GW of planned data center capacity is genuinely delayed by direct project-level impacts. Local moratoriums impact a mere 1,525 MW out of 20 GW within restricted boundaries, affecting only three specific projects. New York's executive order delays about 0.8 GW of 1.4 GW. Texas experiences minor administrative delays for grid-connected projects, offset by a rise in behind-the-meter solutions. The analysis emphasizes that moratoriums often have loopholes, do not revoke existing permits, and frequently affect projects far from construction, leading to minimal actual delays. This contrasts with the narrative that such policies are halting the datacenter construction boom driven by AI demand.

The analysis highlights that the impact of datacenter moratoriums is often overstated, with a mere 2.3 GW of planned capacity facing genuine delays. This figure is derived from a granular, project-by-project assessment, contrasting with broader analyses that focus on the sheer number of moratoriums. The limited impact is attributed to factors like moratoriums often expiring before projects need approvals, existing permits being unaffected, and developers' ability to relocate or redesign projects. This suggests that while policy interventions are occurring, they are not currently a significant bottleneck for the overall US datacenter buildout, which is projected to add 38 GW in 2027.

The trend towards behind-the-meter (BtM) power solutions, particularly in states like Texas, is accelerating as a direct consequence of grid constraints and policy interventions. With 75 GW of firm BtM equipment orders noted, this shift indicates a strategic adaptation by developers to circumvent potential delays or limitations associated with grid interconnection and local restrictions. This could reshape the energy landscape for datacenters, favoring on-site generation and potentially reducing reliance on traditional utility power and its associated regulatory hurdles.