Laptop production share outside China is expected to fall from 24% in 2025 to 21% in 2026 as PC makers rethink shifting production amid soaring component costs

Laptop component costs are rising and may soon increase retail prices.

Global laptop production outside of China is projected to decrease from 24% in 2025 to 21% in 2026. This shift is driven by PC makers reassessing their global manufacturing strategies due to escalating component costs. These rising prices for components like CPUs, DRAM, and SSDs are increasing the overall bill of materials for laptops, making production in alternative locations less economically viable. As a result, companies may move some manufacturing capacity back to China to optimize costs and supply chain efficiency, despite previous diversification efforts aimed at mitigating geopolitical risks. TrendForce estimates this share could fall below 20% in 2027. The report also forecasts potential shipment declines in 2027 if these higher costs are passed on to consumers, leading to increased retail prices and extended replacement cycles.

The anticipated decline in laptop production outside China signifies a pivot in global manufacturing strategy, prioritizing cost-efficiency over geopolitical diversification. As component prices surge, the additional expenses of sourcing and managing supply chains in emerging locations become less tenable, prompting a potential return of capacity to China. This reassessment could reshape regional manufacturing hubs and create new logistical challenges.

This trend indicates a challenging market for consumers in 2027, as PC makers face a difficult balance between absorbing increased component costs and passing them on. The decision to raise prices or reduce specifications will directly impact consumer demand and the overall health of the notebook market, suggesting a period of potential shipment declines and product compromises.