The Escalation of War in Ethiopia

The renewed large-scale fighting in Ethiopia means hundreds of thousands of civilians are again at extreme risk of death and displacement.

Large-scale hostilities have erupted in northern Ethiopia between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and Amhara Fano militias, against the federal government and allied Tigrayan forces. This escalation, beginning September 23rd, marks a significant breach of the 2022 peace deal that had ended the previous Tigray war. The TPLF is primarily blamed for initiating ground assaults, aligning with other rebel groups in a new coalition aiming to overthrow the Ethiopian government. This resurgence in conflict follows the TPLF's retaking of Tigray roughly five months prior and has prompted an intensified drone campaign by Addis Ababa against TPLF positions. The author contends that war in Ethiopia is a choice made by elites, fueled by historical grievances, hubris, and a persistent reliance on identity politics and collective punishment, despite its devastating impact on civilians and governance.

The author argues that Ethiopia's current conflict is a consequence of elites repeatedly choosing war over peace, exacerbated by a flawed ethno-federalist system. This system, established to recognize ethnic differences, has instead fostered narrow ethnic histories and intensified political mobilization around identity, creating incentives for conflict. The state's inability to deter or crush rebellions in their infancy, coupled with a tendency to use indiscriminate violence and collective punishment, further radicalizes populations against the government.

The ongoing conflict highlights a structural instability in Ethiopia, predating Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's administration, which is characterized by elite rivalries and maximalist demands. These factions, often motivated by historical grievances and a desire to maintain power, weaponize ethnic nationalism. While the Pretoria Agreement offered a potential path to de-escalation by ending large-scale fighting and addressing unresolved issues, its implementation faces challenges from belligerents committed to "wars of choice" and the pursuit of ethno-nationalist agendas.