UK AI Minister Kanishka Narayan says AI is set to add £55B to £140B to the economy by 2030, below a £400B estimate from a Google-led report touted by officials

Government estimates for AI's economic benefit are now more than a third lower, suggesting public spending decisions might be re-evaluated.

UK AI Minister Kanishka Narayan has revised the projected economic contribution of AI by 2030 to between £55 billion and £140 billion, with a central estimate of £120 billion. This figure is significantly lower than the previously cited £400 billion, which was revealed to be based on a report commissioned by Google and produced by consultancy firm Public First (now PF Global). Narayan acknowledged this revised assessment is highly uncertain. The £400 billion figure had been used by government departments and agencies for nearly two years under two administrations, despite ministers having the lower estimate since at least November 2025. PF Global explained the discrepancy by citing the government's slower-than-anticipated AI adoption rate compared to their 2023 model's assumptions. Concerns have been raised about government reliance on industry-funded research and the potential for overstating benefits, which could undermine trust and policy decisions.

The divergence in AI economic forecasts highlights a recurring challenge in technology policy: the influence of industry-funded research and the risk of "hype" overshadowing realistic assessments. The government's extended reliance on a Google-commissioned figure, even after internal revisions, raises questions about its due diligence processes and transparency in policy-making. This situation could foster skepticism among policymakers and the public regarding the concrete benefits of AI adoption, potentially slowing down necessary digital transformation efforts.

Moving forward, there is an increased expectation for government bodies to rigorously scrutinize research sources, prioritize independent analysis, and clearly distinguish between potential economic uplift and realized gains. The admission suggests a potential shift towards more cautious and evidence-based policymaking, where the provenance and assumptions behind economic projections will be under greater scrutiny before being used to justify significant investments or policy initiatives.